Packers vs. Lions player props: Two players to pick on ‘Thursday Night Football’

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There’s no denying the expertise of Jahmyr Gibbs.

He’s a dual-threat again with an explosiveness few others possess.

That’s why when he took the RB1 reins with David Montgomery out final week, Gibbs was anticipated to roll. 

Even with a lion’s share of the snaps and touches, it wasn’t till the fourth quarter that Gibbs broke free for consecutive double-digit positive factors.

His final 5 carries went for 38 yards (7.6 yards per carry), however his first 12 completed at 3.5.

He was nonexistent within the passing recreation — two targets, 2 yards — regardless of his utilization in Week 1. 

I’m not sure Montgomery will return for “Thursday Evening Soccer” when the Lions head to Inexperienced Bay for a divisional bout to take over first place within the NFC North.

The Packers got here again from a 17-0 deficit final week and are driving excessive with the expectation WR Christian Watson will even return.

The place Montgomery’s standing impacts Gibbs’ utilization is within the floor recreation.

Head coach Dan Campbell likes to deploy a two-back system the place one is a bruiser, used for short-yardage and red-zone conditions, whereas the opposite is extra finesse, arrange for explosive performs and utilized within the passing recreation. 

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That’s what occurred final yr with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift.

Williams rushed for 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns — simply 73 receiving yards — whereas Swift hauled in almost 50 receptions for 389 yards.

The latter additionally handled accidents and as you possibly can inform by his success in Philadelphia, was staunchly misused.

Every week, we’ve seen Gibbs’ receptions prop sit round 3.5.

Whereas Jared Goff has relied closely on Amon-Ra St. Brown within the brief recreation, I’d name final week an anomaly.

Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs
Getty Photos

Any time you play the Falcons, video games come at a unique tempo due to their run-heavy smashmouth strategy.

Solely 4 whole Lions have been focused, Gibbs being one among them. 

If Montgomery returns, it ought to solely assist Gibbs’ receiving prop — as a result of it’ll dip ever-so-slightly.

Montgomery had only one goal by way of two video games whereas Gibbs racked up 11 alongside his backfield mate. 

There stays numerous unknown with this recreation and due to it, many of the props should not available.

However, when you couldn’t inform already, I’m seeking to goal Gibbs within the receiving recreation. 

Thursday units as much as be a back-and-forth affair, not like final week the place Detroit jumped out to an early lead and by no means relinquished it.

That modified the sport plan, therefore Goff’s restricted utilization of his receivers. 

Whereas Inexperienced Bay’s protection ranks tenth in whole DVOA and has a PFF protection grade of 81.5 (eighth), it does battle towards working backs within the passing recreation.

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The Packers rank twenty seventh and permit almost 50 receiving yards per recreation. 

Check out the primary three weeks.

Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman mixed for 11 receptions and 80 yards.

The next week it was Bijan Robinson who went for 48 yards (4 receptions) earlier than Tony Jones completed Week 3 with 4 receptions for 21 yards. 

That’s numerous numbers I simply threw at you.

However there’s one consistency: 4-plus receptions per recreation to working backs.

They’ve persistently discovered success and excessive utilization towards this Packers protection. 

Montgomery doubtless will probably be restricted even when he fits up.

That’s why it is best to belief Gibbs to make an affect right here.

Play Gibbs’ receptions prop assuming it opens at 3.5 and relying on the quantity, think about his receiving yards over, too. 

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